What to Watch For: OXGN

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I was searching through some stocks today and stumbled across this little gem that definitely popped up on many traders’ scanners: OXGN. The company, OXiGENE, Inc, just revealed positive results in a Phase 2/3 trial of it’s lead candidate ZYBRESTAT, which is working on a treatment against non-small cell lung cancer. As a result, shares closed out at a 15% gain and closed at $0.311, reaching a high of $0.39. I’ll be watching this stock tomorrow as it looks like we may start to get some support at the $0.30 mark, with a 52-week low of $0.25. With volume at 18 times its average (24.51M today, 1.36M avg.), I’ll be looking to hopefully scoop up some shares at $0.30 or maybe even the high $0.20s and see how much upside ZYBRESTAT really has.

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted any new stock tips here, and for that I once again apologize. However, after a few boring months of not finding any interesting plays I think I’ve finally figured out the best thing to buy – Medical Marijuana! No, I’m not suggesting you go out and buy yourself an ounce of some “Bubba Kush“; rather, I’m talking about picking up shares of Pink Sheet stock MJNA (Medical Marijuana Industries).

So what does MMI do? Well, per the MMI website, they have “developed a suite of solutions to deliver an efficient and secure infrastructure for the Medical Marijuana Industry which provides the tools to industry operators to effectively manage their business with the confidence that they are in full compliance”. So essentially they have learned the ropes before anyone else and can offer any company wishing to enter this growing industry a turnkey solution to speed up production.

Before you jump all over me for suggesting an investment in such a controversial company just think about it for a second. Currently in the U.S. 14 states have legalized medical marijuana. In California, the medical marijuana industry is worth over $2 billion dollars alone. Now, add to this fact that California will be voting in November on the possibility of legalizing Marijuana for all California residents aged 21 and over and you have a powder keg of a business ready to explode.

No matter which way the vote goes, I have a gut feeling that MJNA will get some looks from other prospective buyers looking to get their foothold in what could end up being a very very profitable business in the next few years. Even more notable is that MJNA is preparing to launch “The Hemp Network” before this vote takes place and is also planning on hosting a large event at the Pontiac Superdome in Detroit in October. All of this means that MJNA will be getting more looks as we get closer and closer to the November California vote.

At .07 per share (at end of the day on Thursday), MJNA is sitting just above the all time low right now which makes it a very risky play – but one that could pay off HUGE if things play out well over these next few months. I wouldn’t recommend betting your entire life savings on the company, but like the chances of MJNA to begin an upward trend from here.

MJNA 3 mo chart

I don’t really think you can rely on a chart to determine price action on this one, but if you do, MJNA now sits right around the 50 day moving average. A break of this moving average could signal a significant breakout and a run to new “highs” (had to say it).

I’m treating this play as a long term buy and hold. I’m sure rapper Lil’ Wayne would approve of this stock purchase:

GNVC

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Observing the market, I noticed an old friend of mine GNVC jumped 16% on the day alone, going up to .58 AH.  I was pretty disappointed in this because, having put so much research into this company, knew that they had a lot going for them and that .45 a few days before was the perfect entry for me.  I made the decision to lock in my small gain with DDSS and put my money into GNVC, despite the fact that it was pretty much between a Support line (.45) and Resistence line (.65).  I’m very interested to see if this will break the .65 mark, because there isn’t any resistence until 2.95.  No news in 3 days with 2.4M volume, 600K over its average?  Something is going on here (whether it be true or just a massive pump-and-dump, only time can tell).

I’ve enjoyed the last few weeks of being completely free of any holdings in the market. With all of the crazy up and down days, bills passing in the senate, oil going up, dollar going down, you name it – for small time investors like me – there’s too much that I don’t know (and really don’t care to know) about how my stocks are going to fare. What I do know is that this is a time when relying on some very basic fundamentals helps in timing when to start buying stocks again. Take a look at the DOW over the last 6 months:

Any basic trader needs to know about basic support and resistance when it comes to buying stocks. Think of support as the next closest bottom based on the stocks current trading range and resistance as the short term maximum. Typically you buy near support and sell near resistance. Simple enough right? Normally its a very safe technique for picking individual stocks, however, when the entire market is in a severe downturn like what we’ve seen the last couple of weeks you must take a step back and analyze the ENTIRE market and now just individual stocks. The DOW has dropped about 1000 points in the last month (-8.87%). Not surprisingly, many individual stocks are down anywhere from 5% to 20% over this same time period. The market as whole operates on fear, greed, and uncertainty. When fear is the #1 sentiment of the market its easy for many stocks to become oversold as panic sellers will cause margin calls and stop losses to be hit prematurely. This is why we see these huge point swings from day to day.

Alright now I’m just rambling a bit here. What I’m trying to say is that using the support and resistance of the DOW you should be able to find out exactly when a good time to start buying again may be. It should stand out that back in February the DOW dipped below 10000. This should be a sign that MARKET SUPPORT occurs when then DOW is at or around 10000. I was talking to CTeezy on Thursday about when I thought it would be a good time to buy:

1:24 PM me: market’s gettin close to 10k
1:25 PM me: might be time to buy this Friday
1:25 PM CTeezy: ya i saw. ddss is sucking too
1:28 PM me: i mean everything is going to be dragged down as the market goes down
1:28 PM me: its all about finding the bottom for the market and the stocks which have been oversold
1:28 PM me: like – if the DOW is down 8% … find stocks that dropped more than 8% over the same time period
1:29 PM me: cause those are ones which should end up rising with the market
1:30 PM CTeezy: that’d be a great post for ot
1:41 PM me: [talking about weekend plans]

A few minutes later I began looking for some potential oversold candidates and stumbled upon PEIX:


1:45 PM me: PEIX
1:45 PM me: watch that one
1:45 PM me: your bread and butter
1:45 PM me: oil stocks
1:45 PM me: looks oversold
1:45 PM me: http://www.google.com/finance?q=PEIX
1:46 PM me: its down like 50% in a month
1:46 PM me: as soon as market perks up and oil prices start going up it’ll be right back there i think
1:46 PM me: they reported a loss a few days ago which is why tehre was a big selloff
1:48 PM me: support is at like .36 and .69
1:46 PM me: right now its in no mans land at .63 mostly due to the DOW falling
1:54 PM me: http://www.wikinvest.com/commodity/Oil
1:55 PM me: oil price chart correllates to PEIX chart
1:55 PM me: just like Aluminum prices and CENX
1:55 PM me: when oil rises, PEIX rises

Interesting to note about that conversation is that PEIX spiked as much as 48% on Friday. I’m kicking myself for not picking up some shares. I just so happened to be in meeting at my real job this morning when the DOW dipped below 10000 (my signal to buy). By the time I got back to check, PEIX was already shooting to the moon. Like I said – it sucks being right sometimes.

However, this mental victory has given me back some confidence that there are other stocks still oversold right now. Also, the DOW rallied to start the day on Friday but as I look now, it seems like the rally is fading and we’re heading back below 10000 again. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the DOW plunge back to 9800 or even 9500. I’m just keeping all the powder dry to load up when the timing is right. I’ll do my best to dig up some potential buys for next week.

Observing the Market

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After Thursday’s huge drop, many questioned what’s going on with the market.  Are we looking at another October 2008 crash?  Probably not.  Time heals wounds, and people (especially short-term traders) tend to forget what happened weeks ago, which is what I feel is going to happen here.  Now I don’t know of anything to be concerned about right now, but a good way to keep up with the market is by keeping notes.  You want to look at these types of events and jot down everything you can remember about the event, including prices for certain stocks you may or may not be holding.

I’ve kept my eye on certain stocks for awhile now and learning about how they react to certain news events.  If anything, take a look at these stocks and see what they do:

RPRX – Repros Theraputics, a biopharm company for oral drugs, has until June 14th to hit NASDAQ’s $1.00 compliance rule or it will be taking off of the stock exchange.  It must stay above that $1.00 mark for 10 days straight.  Look for this stock to increase in the coming days, or perhaps even reverse-split to get above that $1.00 mark.  If anything, this is a quick trade.

XOMA – XOMA Limited is another biopharm company focused on treating inflammatory diseases.  They, too, are threatened to be delisted and their 6-month window has already passed.  However, they’re plan to appeal for continued listing on the NASDAQ and have until September 13, 2010 to present a compliance plan or they will go to the pink sheets.  Keep an eye on them, for positive news seems to shoot this stock up.

DDSS – This stock has a hard enough time shooting up when good news develops on it.  It seems as though Thursday really shot this stock down and plummeted it through support levels.  I’d say it’s safe now to buy, but I would also wait and see if it drops any further before venturing on.

Keep track of what’s going on as much as possible.  Write it down, and write down what you’re thoughts are on the day.  Always do your own DD, and you will understand how these stocks do based on the news presented about them.

Dow drops 1000 then bounces up 600

This picture basically describes it all. Dow dips below 10,000 by dropping over 1000 points then less than 30 minutes later it has bounced back about 600 points. I wish there was some way I could explain this but I don’t think anyone knows what is going on. As a swing trader I always operate on three main principles – Fear, Greed, and Uncertainty. Right now I’m feeling just about all three of these emotions. The big hit that I took on GNVC a few months ago actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise as it scared me into selling off all of my remaining holdings in the market. So for today I am happy to say that I wasn’t holding a single stock during this chaotic “Black Thursday”. My condolences to all of you who fell victim to the manipulation that took place today. I’m sure some market makers out there made a killing today.

So what to do from here? My first thought is that I should give up stock trading altogether and just focus on trading foreign currencies but I don’t think I have enough time away from my full time job to do that. My second though is that this huge drop is going to spark a lot of fear – especially with individual investors. I’m sure a lot of stop losses and margin calls were triggered today which may have artificially lowered stock prices below where they should have been. I’d say find some companies with proven track records and load up some shares as the market settles and look to make back some of that money that was lost today. Could we eventually see the DOW drop below 10,000 again? Maybe. I’m going to stick to a few stocks that I know and just pick up some cheap call options right now while they are at bargain basement prices. June ’10 Call options on CENX are looking mighty tasty right now …

Oh and just another side note: The main reason for the lack of posting this last month was that both CTeezy and I have had an extraordinary amount of actual 9-5 work taking up most of our time these days. As I said before, I sold everything I owned and just took a break from the market – this is something I would recommend for everyone at some point during the year.

DDSS up over 12% on the day

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Labopharm busted through a tough resistance point in the mid 1.50s to end up at 1.65 at the close and 1.67 AH.  I would say that I knew this was going to happen all along (hell, I even posted about this happening a couple months back).  But truthfully, I did not expect this.  No news, volume 12.5 times the amount from yesterday, and a huge break through the 50 day MA and quickly approaching the 200 day MA at 1.75.  Pump and dump? Possibly. They’ve been FDA approved for Oleptro and the stock did go to the $3 range but dropped after the shares became diluted.  Even with positive news the stock hasn’t budged much.  Is something on the horizon for this company?  I’m looking forward to the pre-market activity tomorrow.  Keep an eye out to see where this one goes, and please do your own DD before making a decision on any stock investment.

ACAD up 15% today

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Acadia Pharmaceuticals broke though a tough resistance point today, some time after 11am this morning, and skyrocketed up to highs it hasn’t seen since October.  It’s up to 1.84 after hours without much news at all.  Although I am excited about this jump, I feel as though it will need to retest a new support level in order to steadily increase in the future.  Look for a bit of a pull back in the next few days before this stock starts trying to break past that $1.89 mark, which looks to be a big resistance level.

What to watch for: ACAD

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O&T has had a rough couple of weeks, especially with the news regarding GNVC stopping their Phase III trial of TNFerade on pancreatic cancer.  All we heard from this drug was positive news, unlike CTIC and their drug Pixantrone.  Regardless, GNVC has some potential to get back up to where it was last month, but I think it’s going to take a long time.  What Tendo and I have learned about this company is that it’s stock price only goes up with positive news, so look to see the price drop if you don’t hear anything about it and be patient.

Moving on, one play I’m looking at right now is Acadia Pharmaceuticals.  Acadia develops and markets drugs focused on treating the central nervous system.  Their portfolio includes pimavanserin (which is in Phase III development for treating Parkinson’s disease psychosis) as well as a drug in Phase II for chronic pain  and another drug in Phase I for glaucoma.  Remember, stock prices for biotechs thrive when they succeed in phase testing (or tank as in GNVC when testing is discontinued).  Back in September they were up to $5.80 before tanking due to not being able to meet one of their endpoints in Phase III testing.  From a technical standpoint there looks to be some resistance at the 1.55 level and support at 1.40.  Look for this to close the day out above 1.55 or fall to the low 1.40s before buying this stock.

O&T vs. GNVC in Pictures

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All I can think when I watch this clip is that the stock market is like Stanford and I am Dee Dee Jernigan of Xavier. I was given two great opportunities to exit my GNVC trade above $3 but missed. However, the worst outcome at the time seemed like it would just send the game into Overtime. But Stanford (the market) took the ball down the court in 4.4 seconds, something that most would say would never be possible, to win the game (Just like I never thought a discontinuation of TNFerade was not possible). Like Dee Dee Jernigan, I’m absolutely sick over this loss, but it has only made me hungrier to win. You can bet your ass O&T is going to rebound from this one. Get it? Rebound.